[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from
Astounding Science-Fiction, September 1946.
Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that
the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]
The man behind the large, polished desk nodded as Peter Wright entered."Wright," he said, "the Oak Tool Works will require an adjuster. You'renew in this office, but I've been given to understand that you haveexperience, are willing, intelligent, and observing. The Oak Tool Workshas a special contract, and it is always taken care of by Mr. Delingewho happens to be having a vacation in an unaccessible spot. Therefore,you will pinch-hit for him."
"I understand."
The president of Interplanetary Industrial Insurance nodded.
"Good," he said. "You are to be at their Charles Street plant at eighto'clock tonight. They are to have an accident then."
Peter Wright nodded. He turned to go, his head mulling over the myriadof questions used by the average insurance adjuster. The questionsdesigned to uncover any possible fraud. Those designed to place thefull blame of the mishap, to ascertain whether it were covered by theexisting contract, to determine the exact and precise time of theaccident—
"What?" he yelled, turning back to the executive.
The president of I.I.I. nodded wearily.
"I heard you right?" asked Peter incredulously.
Edwin Porter nodded.
"But look, sir. An accident, by definition, is an unforeseen incident,which by common usage has come to be accepted as misfortunate,although the term 'accident' may correctly be applied to—"
"Wright, after you have been to the Oak Tool Works, you will becomeviolently anti-semantic."
"But look, sir. If this accident is forecast with certainty, why can'tit be averted?"
"Because it has happened already."
"But you said eight o'clock."
"I did," said Porter. "And I mean it."
"But ... but it is now about three-thirty in the afternoon. At eighto'clock this evening there is to be an accident that has happenedalready. The Oak Tool Works is in this same time-zone; they're runningon Central Standard Time, too. So far as I know, the Oak Tool Works isnot manufacturing time machines, are they?"
Porter grinned despite his weariness. "No, Oak, is not manufacturingtime machines."
"I am still in gross ignorance. If anybody is capable of trulypredicting the future on the basis of ten percent accuracy, he'd putthe insurance companies out of business—unless they hired him."
"The future, in some senses, can be predicted," said Porter.
"Only on a statistical basis," answered Wright. "The prediction thattomorrow will arrive at precisely such and such an instant is aprediction based upon the statistical experience gained by severalthousand years. So is the prediction of what will happen when sulphuricacid and potassium nitrate are mixed. But an accident, sir, isunpredictable by definition. Therefore he who can predict an accidentis a true prognosticator who needs no statistical experience to bolsterup his forecasting."
"Wright, this argument gets nowhere. It, incidentally, is why Delingealways handled the Oak contract. He knew, and there was never anargument. No, I'll tell you no more, Wright. You'll be incredulousanyway until you've seen it in person. Eventually, you'll understand."
"I doubt it," replied Peter. "Seems to me that there are a couple ofvery obvious factors. One, if an accident can be predicted, it can alsobe avoided. Two, if such an accident is foreseen and nothing is doneabout trying to avert it, then it is a matter of gross negligence andthe contract may be voided on those grounds."
...